It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas?

Just before sunrise, I went outside to check on something inside our automobile, and saw a covering of frost: the second such morning of the season. Here in Houston, we do dip below the freezing point every once in a while.

But I had better store these good times in the frosty air to memory, based on the latest comments of James E. Hansen, the NASA climatologist. According to Jim, the US climate is being influenced by a "solar low" in the 13-year solar output cycle, as well as by a pronounced La Nina, when the cold end of the Pacific Ocean sloshes up to the west coast. Despite these influences, 2007 is shaping up to be the second hottest year in the history of recorded measurements.

This fact illustrates how far human control of the climate has already overridden the natural system, even without the feedbacks that will greatly increase the effects of global warming as ice and tundra melt and sea life dies and forests burn.

Projecting the solar and Pacific meridonal overturn cycles forward (red is hot, blue is cold):
123456789012312345678901231234567890123123456789012312 Solar cycle
123451234512345123412341234123412341234123412341234123 El Nino cycle (this can vary however)

222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 Year
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
0001111111111 22222222223333333333444444444455555555556
789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890

All else the same, that is, without catastrophic changes due to nonlinear effects like the loss of grounded ice sheets or large species blooms/extinctions, it looks like 2014-2015 and 2039-2040 will show the enhanced heat effects of global warming well, and 2052 may become a heat crisis like none other. These dates are approximate primarily because of the variations in El Nino-La Nina, which I've assumed to average five years shortening to four years periodicity in the above analysis.

Regardless, it seems clear that natural variation will enhance our experience of global warming shortly after 2012, and then produce a long lag during which we must not become complacent. These natural variations will become pronounced again after 2040, when global heat shall have increased exponentially and temperatures will have responded in full to today's greenhouse gas increases.

Please note that the above is not intended to scare people or dissuade our efforts toward mitigation. On a happy note, I think my field of inquiry has finally received a name: adaptation planning!